Macroeconomic Indicators
M2 money stock Broad USD liquidity (billions of USD, seasonally adjusted).
Rising M2 = easier liquidity → tailwind for risk (often supportive for BTC); falling = headwind.
Rising M2 = easier liquidity → tailwind for risk (often supportive for BTC); falling = headwind.
USD Broad Index Trade-weighted dollar strength (index value, 2020–2022 average = 100).
Strong USD = risk-off pressure (often inverse to BTC); weak USD = risk-on tailwind.
Strong USD = risk-off pressure (often inverse to BTC); weak USD = risk-on tailwind.
UST 2Y vs 10Y yields Short- vs long-end rates (yield in %).
2Y tracks Fed policy closely; 10Y reflects growth/inflation expectations. Steep curve = growth optimism; flat/inverted = caution.
2Y tracks Fed policy closely; 10Y reflects growth/inflation expectations. Steep curve = growth optimism; flat/inverted = caution.
10Y–2Y Spread: Long-short Treasury curve (percentage points).
Inversion (negative spread) historically signals recession risk; steepening often precedes economic recovery or policy pivot.
Inversion (negative spread) historically signals recession risk; steepening often precedes economic recovery or policy pivot.
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) Expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility (index level).
High/spiking VIX = market fear/risk-off (often BTC drawdowns); low/complacent VIX = risk-on but can precede corrections.
High/spiking VIX = market fear/risk-off (often BTC drawdowns); low/complacent VIX = risk-on but can precede corrections.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) Headline inflation (year-over-year % change).
High/persistent CPI = pressure for tighter Fed policy (headwind for risk assets like BTC); falling CPI = easing conditions → supportive for risk.
High/persistent CPI = pressure for tighter Fed policy (headwind for risk assets like BTC); falling CPI = easing conditions → supportive for risk.
Fed Funds Rate Target policy rate (effective rate in %).
Rising rate = tightening liquidity (risk-off for crypto/assets); cuts or pause = accommodative stance → tailwind for risk-on behavior.
Rising rate = tightening liquidity (risk-off for crypto/assets); cuts or pause = accommodative stance → tailwind for risk-on behavior.