Macroeconomic Indicators

M2 money stock: Broad USD liquidity. Rising M2 = easier liquidity → tailwind for risk (often supportive for BTC); falling = headwind.

USD Broad Index: Dollar strength. Typically inverse to BTC—strong USD = risk-off; weak USD = risk-on.

UST 2Y vs 10Y: Front-end tracks Fed path; long-end = growth/inflation outlook.

10s–2s Spread: Inversion often signals slowdown risk; re-steepening can precede regime shifts.

VIX (Equity Volatility): Higher VIX = stress/risk-off (often BTC drawdowns); low, falling VIX = risk-on but beware complacency.

CPI (Inflation): Higher CPI = persistent inflation → pressure for tighter Fed policy, which is a headwind for risk assets like BTC. Falling CPI = easing conditions.

Fed Funds Rate: The policy rate set by the Fed. Rising = tighter liquidity (risk-off for crypto); falling or stable = supportive for risk-on behavior.